Life has a way of keeping things interesting. After a long cycle of bull returns, the time for profit-taking has arrived. This is the process of capturing the gains in the investments that have performed well. I will explore some of the factors that are currently active in the economy, the markets and what you can do to maximize your family’s best interest.
The overall economy is improving in the United States. When I state that comment I sort of cringe thinking about the impact that is being felt by the families of our country. Inflation has reached a 40-year high at 7.5% according to tradingeconomics.com. Some of the factors leading to this excessive rate are labor shortages, soaring energy costs and supply chain disruptions. Based on a review of ktvz.com, March and April, 1980, inflation had risen to an unprecedented peace time level of 14.6%. Acknowledging that this rate is extremely high by today’s standards, the highest inflation factor in the United States was experienced in 1778 at 29.78% (Investopedia.com).
Improvements in market controls, inventory production, delivery methods and banking policies contributed to maintaining a more reasonable inflation experience for many decades. It is not unusual for the people of the United States to be subjected to a 2% – 3% inflation rate in our overall economy. However, in our modern world where we rely on transportation and housing that must be heated and cooled with natural gas or electricity, an inflation rate above 4% begins to reflect on people’s lifestyles.
The unemployment rate is at historic lows for our country. This rate often touted by politicians to show their outstanding work on the economy is misunderstood by the mass of Americans. To properly understand the application of the rate to the economy, you must consider that underemployed and those individuals not actively looking for work are not considered in developing the rate. For those individuals seeking employment, there are currently more job opportunities than workers to fill them. This is a big plus for our economy. During times of high demand for skilled workers the hourly wage rises. It is simple economics – supply and demand. When demand for something (or someone) rises and the supply (people looking for work) is static or lower, the price for labor will be higher.
Rising wages are good for workers until they realize the costs of goods rise along with them. Companies will increase prices on goods to cover the increased cost of labor while maintaining the profit margin necessary to continue operations.
Another factor affecting the economy is the supply chain disruption. Goods that are manufactured outside the United States must be imported for sale by businesses to the public. Recently, the shelves of some of the largest retailers have been limited or out of products demanded by the public for their functions in life. Don’t get me started about the “Toilet Paper Run of 2020”. There was plenty of the product for the current needs of people in our country. However, a rumor on social media stoking the fears of people caused a panic to buy greater quantities of toilet tissue. Some of the memes on social media were hilarious! At one point it appeared that toilet tissue would become the currency of choice due to the high value it held in the public’s mind.
All these factors create economic conditions of expansion or, more recently, contraction in the economy. People are subjected to many emotions in life. However, in my 34-year career, I have discovered two emotions that are most prominent when it comes to financial decisions about a person’s retirement and investment accounts – fear and greed. Memory fades quickly from the very positive returns of only a few months earlier when a market correction appears. People who have enjoyed almost 14 years of positive returns in their portfolios are suddenly stricken with the fact that markets can (and often do) go down.
Recently, I asked a client if she would sell her home if it went down in value. The look on her face was as if I had asked her to donate a kidney! Her response was “that is a long-term asset and has tremendous value to me”. I then asked the simple question, “Your retirement account is your lifetime asset. Why do you want to sell it when it is down?” She simply stated, “You are right.” The stock market is the only investment I am aware that people buy when its high and sell when its low. This is the opposite to increasing your overall lifetime return and cash flow.
Buy or sell? Each person must deal with their fear or greed. By remaining calm when others are frantic and scared, you will be rewarded with greater opportunity for growth over a lifetime. Make certain your risk tolerance is properly reflected in a diversified portfolio and your cash reserves will accommodate 90 – 120 days of living expenses. This correction will pass.
Your lifetime of financial security for your family is no laughing matter. To alleviate the stress from worrying about your finances, seek out a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERTM professional to help you build confidence in your future so you can laugh all the way to retirement and beyond.